TheOtherDave comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong

94 Post author: Yvain 05 December 2011 10:49AM

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Comment author: TheOtherDave 04 December 2011 09:08:57PM 0 points [-]

I don't quite understand your final clause. Are you saying that you still believe a significant number of people on LW overestimate the danger of UFAI, but that your confidence in that is lower than it was?

Comment author: Sophronius 04 December 2011 11:31:09PM *  -1 points [-]

More or less. I meant that I now estimate a reduced but still non-zero probability of upwards bias, but only a negligible probability of a bias in the other direction. So the average expected upward bias is decreased but still positive. Thus I should adjust the probability of human extinction being due to unfriendly ai downwards. Of course, the possibility of less wrong over or underestimating existential risk in general is another matter.