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Sophronius comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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True, but this could be the result of a handful of people giving a crazy answer (noise). Not really indicative of less wrong as a whole. I imagine most less wrongers gave negligible probabilities for both, allowing a few religious people to skew the results.
I was thinking you meant statistical error.
Do you mean trolls, or people who don't understand the question?
Neither, I meant people who don't understand that the probability of a god should be less than the probability of something supernatural existing. Add in religious certainty and you get a handful of people giving answers like P(god) = 99% and P(supernatural) = 50% which can easily skew the results if the rest of less wrong gives probabilities like 1%and 2% respectively. Given what Yvain wrote in the OP though, I think there's also plenty of evidence of trolls upsetting the results somewhat at points.
Of course, it would make much more sense to ask Yvain for more data on how people answered this question rather than speculate on this matter :p