Sophronius comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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More or less. I meant that I now estimate a reduced but still non-zero probability of upwards bias, but only a negligible probability of a bias in the other direction. So the average expected upward bias is decreased but still positive. Thus I should adjust the probability of human extinction being due to unfriendly ai downwards. Of course, the possibility of less wrong over or underestimating existential risk in general is another matter.