Eugine_Nier comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong

94 Post author: Yvain 05 December 2011 10:49AM

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Comment author: steven0461 04 December 2011 10:50:30PM 8 points [-]

As with the last survey, it's amazing how casually many people assign probabilities like 1% and 99%. I can understand in a few cases, like the religion questions, and Fermi-based answers to the aliens in the galaxy question. But on the whole it looks like many survey takers are just failing the absolute basics: don't assign extreme probabilities without extreme justification.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 05 December 2011 04:03:03AM 6 points [-]

On the other hand, conjunctive bias exists. It's not hard to string together enough conjunctions that the probability of the statement should be in an extreme range.

Comment author: steven0461 05 December 2011 04:21:49AM 4 points [-]

Does this describe any of the poll questions?