gwern comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong

94 Post author: Yvain 05 December 2011 10:49AM

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Comment author: Desrtopa 05 December 2011 06:13:43PM 2 points [-]

I didn't say that lifespans would necessarily become greater in that period, but several decades is time for the rates to change quite a lot. And while public health has become worse in recent decades in a number of ways (obesity epidemic, lower rates of exercise,) a technologies have been developed which improve the prognoses for a lot of ailments (we may not have cured cancer yet, but many forms are much more treatable than they used to be.)

If all the supposed medical discoveries I hear about on a regular basis were all they're cracked up to be, we would already have a generalized cure for cancer by now and already have ageless mice if not ageless humans, but even if we assume no 'magic bullet' innovations in the meantime, the benefits of incrementally advancing technology are likely to outpace decreases in health if only because the population can probably only get so much fatter and more out of shape than it already is before we reach a point where increased proliferation of superstimulus foods and sedentary activities don't make any difference.

Comment author: gwern 05 December 2011 06:50:45PM 2 points [-]

we may not have cured cancer yet, but many forms are much more treatable than they used to be

Which is already built into the quoted longevity increases. (See also the Gompertz curve.)

Comment author: Desrtopa 05 December 2011 06:58:02PM 2 points [-]

Right, my point is that SENS research, which is a fairly new field, doesn't have to be dramatically more successful than cancer research to produce tangible returns in human life expectancy, and the deceleration in increase of life expectancy is most likely due to a negative health trend which is likely not to endure over the entire interval.