michaelsullivan comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong

94 Post author: Yvain 05 December 2011 10:49AM

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Comment author: gwern 04 December 2011 09:48:27PM 16 points [-]

The mean age was 27.18 years. Quartiles (25%, 50%, 75%) were 21, 25, and 30. 90% of us are under 38, 95% of us are under 45, but there are still eleven Less Wrongers over the age of 60....The mean for the Singularity question is useless because of the very high numbers some people put in, but the median was 2080 (quartiles 2050, 2080, 2150). The Singularity has gotten later since 2009: the median guess then was 2067.

So the 50% age is 25 and the 50% estimate is 2080? A 25 year old has a life expectancy of, what, another 50 years? 2011+50=2061, or 19 years short of the Singularity!

Either people are rather optimistic about future life-extension (despite 'Someone now living will reach age 1000: 23.6'), or the Maes-Garreau Law may not be such a law.

Comment author: michaelsullivan 05 December 2011 07:28:42PM 3 points [-]

I would interpret "the latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it", "lifetime" would be the longest typical lifetime, rather than an actuarial average. So -- we know lots of people who live to 95, so that seems like it's within our possible lifetime. I certainly could live to 95, even if it's less than a 50/50 shot.

One other bit -- the average life expectancy is for the entire population, but the average life expectancy of white, college educated persons earning (or expected to earn) a first or second quintile income is quite a bit higher, and a very high proportion of LWers fall into that demographic. I took a quick actuarial survey a few months back that suggested my life expectancy given my family age/medical history, demographics, etc. was to reach 92 (I'm currently 43).

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