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Unnamed comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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Rather, believe the probability of cryonics producing a favorable outcome to be less. This was a confusing question, because it wasn't specified whether it's total probability, since if it is, then probability of global catastrophe had to be taken into account, and, depending on your expectation about usefulness of frozen heads to FAI's value, probability of FAI as well (in addition to the usual failure-of-preservation risks). As a result, even though I'm almost certain that cryonics fundamentally works, I gave only something like 3% probability. Should I really be classified as "doesn't believe in cryonics"?
(The same issue applied to live-to-1000. If there is a global catastrophe anywhere in the next 1000 years, then living-to-1000 doesn't happen, so it's a heavy discount factor. If there is a FAI, it's also unclear whether original individuals remain and it makes sense to count their individual lifespans.)
Good point, and I think it explains one of the funny results that I found in the data. There was a relationship between strength of membership in the LW community and the answers to a lot of the questions, but the anti-agathics question was the one case where there was a clear non-monotonic relationship. People with a moderate strength of membership (nonzero but small karma, read 25-50% of the sequences, or been in the LW community for 1-2 years) were the most likely to think that at least one currently living person will reach an age of 1,000 years; those with a stronger or weaker tie to LW gave lower estimates.
There was some suggestion of a similar pattern on the cryonics question, but it was only there for the sequence reading measure of strength of membership and not for the other two.