Konkvistador comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong

94 Post author: Yvain 05 December 2011 10:49AM

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Comment author: Desrtopa 05 December 2011 02:12:01PM 11 points [-]

Significant anthropogenic global warming is occurring: 70.7, (55, 85, 95)

I'm rather shocked that the numbers on this are so low. It's higher than polls indicate as the degree of acceptance in America, but then, we're dealing with a public where supposedly half of the people believe that tomatoes only have genes if they are genetically modified. Is this a subject on which Less Wrongers are significantly meta-contrarian?

Comment author: [deleted] 06 December 2011 08:45:13AM 8 points [-]

Perhaps they also want to signal a sentiment similar to that of Freeman Dyson:

I believe global warming is grossly exaggerated as a problem. It's a real problem, but it's nothing like as serious as people are led to believe. The idea that global warming is the most important problem facing the world is total nonsense and is doing a lot of harm. It distracts people's attention from much more serious problems.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 15 December 2012 05:51:42PM 0 points [-]

That gets to the issue I had with the question.

"Significant" is just too vague. Everyone who gave an answer was answering a different question, depending on how they interpreted "significant".

The survey question itself indicates a primary problem with the discussion of global warming - a conflation of temperature rise and societal cost of temperature rise. First, ask a meaningful question about temperature increase. Then, ask questions about societal cost given different levels of temperature increase.