Jonathan_Graehl comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong

94 Post author: Yvain 05 December 2011 10:49AM

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Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 06 December 2011 08:22:33PM 0 points [-]

I had the same reaction. The only defense I can imagine is that the second proposition is "in our galaxy" and not "in a random galaxy" - before looking, we should expect to find more other intelligent species in ours, which we know at least doesn't rule out the possibility :)

I tried to guess how many our-galaxy intelligent-life-expectation equivalents exist in our universe. I personally find 50 (the 25% quartile) laughably low.

1:50 and (100-99):(100-80) are fairly extreme - just not extreme enough.