Lapsed_Lurker comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong

94 Post author: Yvain 05 December 2011 10:49AM

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Comment author: gwern 04 December 2011 09:48:27PM 16 points [-]

The mean age was 27.18 years. Quartiles (25%, 50%, 75%) were 21, 25, and 30. 90% of us are under 38, 95% of us are under 45, but there are still eleven Less Wrongers over the age of 60....The mean for the Singularity question is useless because of the very high numbers some people put in, but the median was 2080 (quartiles 2050, 2080, 2150). The Singularity has gotten later since 2009: the median guess then was 2067.

So the 50% age is 25 and the 50% estimate is 2080? A 25 year old has a life expectancy of, what, another 50 years? 2011+50=2061, or 19 years short of the Singularity!

Either people are rather optimistic about future life-extension (despite 'Someone now living will reach age 1000: 23.6'), or the Maes-Garreau Law may not be such a law.

Comment author: Lapsed_Lurker 06 December 2011 08:48:11PM 0 points [-]

Is the mean age for everyone who answered the age question similar to that of those who answered both the age and singularity questions?

I think I remember estimating a bit lower than that for the singularity - but I wouldn't have estimated at all were it not for the question saying that not answering was going to be interpreted as believing it wouldn't happen at all.

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