dlthomas comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong

94 Post author: Yvain 05 December 2011 10:49AM

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Comment author: dlthomas 06 December 2011 08:53:44PM 2 points [-]

Note that the top 25% put 99 or above for Universe. Of those, I would be surprised if there weren't a big chunk that put 100 (indicating 100 - epsilon, of course). This is not weighed in appropriately. Likewise for the bottom 25% for Galaxy.

Basically, "If you hugely truncate the outside edges, the average probabilities wind up too close together" should be entirely unsurprising.