CarlShulman comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong

94 Post author: Yvain 05 December 2011 10:49AM

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Comment author: gwern 08 December 2011 02:51:39AM 5 points [-]

I think the main reason for this is that these persons have simply spent more time thinking about cyronics compared to other people.

I don't think this is obvious at all. If you had asked me before in advance which of the following 4 possible sign-pairs would be true with increasing time spent thinking about cryonics:

  1. less credence, less sign-ups
  2. less credence, more sign-ups
  3. more credence, more sign-ups
  4. more credence, less sign-ups

I would have said 'obviously #3, since everyone starts from "that won't ever work" and move up from there, and then one is that much more likely to sign up'

The actual outcome, #2, would be the one I would expect least. (Hence, I am strongly suspicious of anyone claiming to expect or predict it as suffering from hindsight bias.)

Comment author: CarlShulman 08 December 2011 10:05:35PM 3 points [-]

It is noted above that those with strong community attachment think that there is more risk of catastrophe. If human civilization collapses or is destroyed, then cryonics patients and facilities will also be destroyed.