NancyLebovitz comments on Urges vs. Goals: The analogy to anticipation and belief - Less Wrong
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Simple, useful preaching.
I'd say it's useful, but that is not a simple explanation.
Perhaps I really meant "persuasive", not "simple".
Simple would be: Try to have a model of the world. Try to have goals. Don't worry yet about mistakes. By trying at all, you'll probably do better than most people.