wedrifid comments on Video Q&A with Singularity Institute Executive Director - Less Wrong

42 Post author: lukeprog 10 December 2011 11:27AM

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Comment author: wedrifid 15 December 2011 11:19:42AM *  4 points [-]

absolutely does not follow from

You seem to be confused. It isn't supposed to follow - it is meant as a contrast! Kompo estimated 1 bit of evidence of crackpotness is embedded in prominent misuse of language. He then reaffirms that despite this he isn't saying that singinst is a crackpot institute... that is what declaring a one bit update on a very low prior means and there is no evidence suggesting that kompo intended anything else. He is making a general gesture of respect to the institute so it is clear that he isn't using this issue as an excuse to insult the institute itself.

I assumed you were, because you spoke of evidence likelihoods and Bayesian evidence in favour of propositions: but now I fear those are just locally high-status words you were using, because when you take a low prior and update on 2:1 evidence you are left with a low prior.

He knows this, has used bayesian reasoning correctly in the past in his posts and has not made a mistake here.