It's worth noting that the question of what is a better way of evaluating such prospects is distinct from the question of how I in fact evaluate them.

Good point. What I meant was closer to "which method of evaluation does the best job of capturing how you intuitively assign value" rather than which way is better in some sort of objective sense. For me #1 seems to describe how I assign value and disvalue to repeating copies better than #2 does, but I'm far from certain.

So I think that from my point of view Omega offering to extend the length of a repeated event so it contains a more even mixture of good and bad is the same as Omega offering to not repeat a bad event and repeat a good event instead. Both options contain zero value, I would rather Omega leave me alone and let me go do new things. But they're better than him repeating a bad event.