To a first approximation, I agree with the original essay. To nitpick, though:
If someone has thought through his model in enough detail that he has a reasonable-sounding plan to empirically test it, that's bayesian evidence that it's a strong one.
If someone's model has no in-principle testable consequences, that's bayesian evidence that there's little point in wasting brainpower considering it; scoffing at it and forgetting it is a safe default action. Of course, since the ketchup hypothesis does have such consequences, I can think of uses for it, if it is true.
If someone has thought through his model in enough detail that he has a reasonable-sounding plan to empirically test it, that's bayesian evidence that it's a strong one.
Upvoted this ^^^
If someone's model has no in-principle testable consequences, that's bayesian evidence that there's little point in wasting brainpower considering it; scoffing at it and forgetting it is a safe default action. Of course, since the ketchup hypothesis does have such consequences, I can think of uses for it, if it is true.
What about the case where the model is not testab...
Today's post, Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych was originally published on 04 January 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of the Rerunning the Sequences series, where we'll be going through Eliezer Yudkowsky's old posts in order so that people who are interested can (re-)read and discuss them. The previous post was Stop Voting For Nincompoops, and you can use the sequence_reruns tag or rss feed to follow the rest of the series.
Sequence reruns are a community-driven effort. You can participate by re-reading the sequence post, discussing it here, posting the next day's sequence reruns post, or summarizing forthcoming articles on the wiki. Go here for more details, or to have meta discussions about the Rerunning the Sequences series.