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jmmcd comments on Examples of the Mind Projection Fallacy? - Less Wrong
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Comments (34)
Here's one that comes to mind:
I really don't know anything about baseball, so if I'm going to bet on either the Red Socks or the Yankees, I'd have to go fifty-fifty on it. Therefore, the chance that either will win is fifty percent.
(Right at the "therefore" is the fallacy put forward as a veritable property of either of the teams winning, when in fact it is merely indicative of the ignorance of the gambler. The actual probability is most likely not 50-50.)
EDIT: Others might enjoy reading this PDF ("Probability Theory as Logic") for additional background and ideas. There you'll also see a bon mot by Montaigne: "Man is surely mad. He cannot make a worm; yet he makes Gods by the dozen."
It's surely a fallacy, but I'm not sure it's the typical mind one.
"It's either the typical mind fallacy, or it's not. 50-50!"
EDIT Somewhere between reading the post and clicking comment I seem to have switched from "mind projection" to "typical mind". Darn: that makes it 33-33-33 instead.
Funny. I thought of pointing that out as well, but I thought it probably wasn't worth mentioning.
As I've imagined it being said before: "I'm either a genius or I'm not. That's a 50% chance of my being a genius. Just pray luck isn't on my side!" :)