Both players believe they will benefit from the trade, but only one of them (at most) will win. This is not the same from it being beneficial in a more long-term, reflectively-consistent sense.
The same dynamic you describe as being present in 2-player Catan is also present in trades between two players in 3+ player Catan, but with the caveats I mentioned before.
In the short-to-medium term, maximizing probability of winning is more or less the same as maximizing the rate at which you accumulate points. Trades that maximize points work in roughly the same way as they would in a real economy, given that it's a rough model that doesn't even try to be a perfect simulation. Near the end of the game, other concerns come up, because it becomes important to get to 10 points first even if this is not the action that maximizes projected point gain; for most of the game, though, that's not true.
It's traditional in many parts of the world to buy (or make) presents for at least the closest members one's family around this time of the year. I would like to know if anyone here has ideas for presents to give to people from college age to middle age who are not rationalists, but not completely closed off to the idea.
So far I've considered mostly things that would help rid them of various superstitions, particularly astrology and the 2012 apocalypse myth. For this purpose I've looked at books and videos on
Has anyone else on LW faced this sort of situation before? Or does anyone here have general advice on this topic?