Vaniver comments on Decision Analysis Sequence - Less Wrong

24 Post author: Vaniver 21 December 2011 12:12AM

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Comment author: beoShaffer 23 December 2011 03:12:09AM *  1 point [-]

(It took me a few hours to read through the textbook, and I felt that contained the majority of the value the standard student would get from the class.)

What textbook did you use? Do you know how it compares to other textbooks on the subject? Also, does it include practice problem with answers? It sounds like it could be a useful recourse for those who want more detail, but can't or won't take a full class on it.

Comment author: Vaniver 23 December 2011 04:24:28AM *  1 point [-]

Unfortunately, the textbook we used was an unpublished manuscript, and didn't have anything in the way of problems (one of the reasons I was able to finish it so quickly!). Other books I'm aware of on the subject:

Rational Decisions by Binmore is fairly close, but it focuses much more on the philosophical underpinnings of Bayesian decision theory, and is very much not a textbook (it doesn't have problems, and mathematical sections are explicitly marked as optional).

Smart Choices by Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa is very similar to this sequence, though they spend more time on determining preferences (which is useful for search problems, like deciding the best job to take or place to live, as they may have many different values that you need to aggregate somehow). It also doesn't have anything in the way of problems, but has more examples.

In writing this comment, I came across Introduction to Decision Analysis by David Skinner. It appears to be textbook length, but as I haven't read it I can't recommend it.

Much later edit: I read and reviewed Thinking and Deciding.

2013 edit: My current favorite book on decision-making is Decisive by Heath and Heath, but it talks about habits that lead to better decisions; it is not at all a textbook. I don't think it even mentions expected value calculation, except perhaps in passing.