gwern comments on Prediction is hard, especially of medicine - Less Wrong

47 Post author: gwern 23 December 2011 08:34PM

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Comment author: XFrequentist 22 December 2011 08:39:16PM 2 points [-]

Melatonin is a naturally occurring bioregulatory molecule which is inexpensive and freely available as an over the counter “nutrient.”

...

What kind of black irony is it that I live in terror of stroke and cardiac arrest (for both myself and my loved ones) and yet the very molecules I discovered to combat them are as unavailable as if they had never been found?

Huh? What am I missing here? I take melatonin all the time, it's far from "unavailable".

Comment author: gwern 22 December 2011 08:46:39PM *  10 points [-]

You're not taking your nightly melatonin pill when you are unconscious or suffering a stroke or cardiac arrest, nor are you popping it in a loved one's mouth in similar circumstances; he's referring to use, routine or exceptional, by medical personnel.