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gwern comments on Prediction is hard, especially of medicine - Less Wrong
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I thought the increase in cosmetic surgery prediction was also very accurate, even if the US is not yet competitive with (say) South Korea.
Oops, missed that area, even less life-critical, Many Thanks! (Can I construe the replacement of solid metal crowns with polymers and ceramics as a cosmetic change, and therefore being in an area of overlap? :) )
Depends. Weren't solid metal crowns often involved with mercury amalgams? Whenever mercury is involved with anything, I have an unshakeable suspicion that someone is being harmed somewhere. It's a little like lead or a bloody body: maybe it's perfectly innocent and there's a reasonable explanation why you should not be worried by its presence... but don't bet on it and call the police.
Hmm - as far as I know, the metal crowns that I have didn't require any mercury amalgams.