soreff comments on Prediction is hard, especially of medicine - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (47)
Good discussion, and a good reference.
Re DSimon's:
FDAReview says:
(This was actually something of a surprise to me. My wife has been on a couple of medications which have since been withdrawn, so I've been getting increasingly uncomfortable with the general level of safety of pharmaceuticals, so I'd been leaning in DSimon's direction on this - but this evidence says that increased scrutiny from the FDA hasn't been helping)
The section on off-label uses of drugs is also very persuasive:
I'm not sure I'd quite agree with
The phase I trials, looking for human toxicity, still sound reasonable. To my mind, it does look like the efficacy trials should be moved out of the FDA - basically crowd-sourced as post-market data gathering.
I agree with
It would help if as many groups as possible have the opportunity to dig through the data as possible. One caveat/suggestion: Epidemiological studies tend to be terrible at giving solid conclusions. Double blind randomized studies are able to cancel out far more of the confounding variables. I suggest that, for any medical decisions that are anywhere close to a 50:50 decision, that an incentive be offered to explicitly randomize the decision and record that fact, along with the other outcome data on the case. Where there is uncertainty anyway, this won't hurt the participating patients on average anyway, and it would embed a continuous stream of randomized trials in the available data.