thomblake comments on Prediction is hard, especially of medicine - Less Wrong

47 Post author: gwern 23 December 2011 08:34PM

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Comment author: thomblake 16 February 2012 08:42:34PM 0 points [-]

While I can agree there is a lot of political infighting isn't this more a result of the iron law of oligarchy than anything designed on purpose?

Meh. I'm agnostic about whether it was "on purpose". Humans revolt and so select for governments that aren't revolting.

I'm not sure how the iron law of oligarchy results in political infighting, and i'm skeptical of the iron law of oligarchy, but I don't think that's particularly relevant if we agree about the facts on the ground.

Also generally I'm of the opinion that in the long run formalized check and balances don't really work.

Well, nothing works in the indefinite long run, unless your goal is entropy. It does seem to stop a lot of legislation from being passed / sticking in the US, which I suppose is only a benefit from a particular perspective.

Comment author: [deleted] 16 February 2012 08:45:58PM 0 points [-]

Meh. I'm agnostic about whether it was "on purpose". Humans revolt and so select for governments that aren't revolting.

I think that selection filter is much weaker than most imagine. The poor don't revolt.

but I don't think that's particularly relevant if we agree about the facts on the ground.

Agreed.