taw comments on Prediction is hard, especially of medicine - Less Wrong

47 Post author: gwern 23 December 2011 08:34PM

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Comment author: taw 16 February 2012 11:56:27PM 3 points [-]

France has thrown lots of money at making people drive safely, it's working (and fines are a big part of it so there's money recovered that way) but it doesn't seem miraculously impressive.

Here's list of countries by traffic fatalities per capita, per vehicle, and per distance travelled. Disparity is just ridiculously huge compared to death cares from just about any other cause, even between seemingly similar countries.

Making roads themselves safer tend to encourage reckless driving so it's not obvious there are big gains here.

Except there's no serious evidence for that, and massive counter-evidence (see table above).