CarlShulman comments on Prediction is hard, especially of medicine - Less Wrong
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This story would be more plausible as an explanation of slow medical progress if there hadn't been big increases in medical R&D spending and employment (on first-world diseases) over the last 40 years, and massive growth in overall medical spending relative to GDP. It doesn't explain the declining rate of drugs developed per dollar invested in pharma R&D, or the broader failure to translate research spending to health gains.