CarlShulman comments on Prediction is hard, especially of medicine - Less Wrong

47 Post author: gwern 23 December 2011 08:34PM

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Comment author: CarlShulman 17 February 2012 01:14:35AM *  1 point [-]

What's the point in throwing ridiculous amount of money on saving one life of old person in wealthy country, if you can make hundreds of undercapitalized people in poor countries productive for the same price?

This story would be more plausible as an explanation of slow medical progress if there hadn't been big increases in medical R&D spending and employment (on first-world diseases) over the last 40 years, and massive growth in overall medical spending relative to GDP. It doesn't explain the declining rate of drugs developed per dollar invested in pharma R&D, or the broader failure to translate research spending to health gains.