Caspian comments on Prediction is hard, especially of medicine - Less Wrong

47 Post author: gwern 23 December 2011 08:34PM

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Comment author: taw 16 February 2012 05:28:13PM 4 points [-]

Most people don't spend their own money on saving their grandparents, they spend other people's money. Don't act surprised that other people's willingness to throw tens of millions at your grandfather's last year is not unlimited.

Also if people really cared about how long other people in their country lived, total cigarette ban would be a super simple and super cheap way to start (especially since e-cigarettes are an existing and viable low-cancer substitute - people want the psychoactive bits not the tar). And trans fat ban - or at least strict labeling requirement (which would amount to the same, since nobody want that, and trans fats don't have any special taste or anything, they're just industrial poison in food). Or throwing some money at making roads safer (most accidents happen on small fraction of bad spots). And in countless other ways. Throwing ridiculous amount of money at people when they're oldest is stupid way to achieve an already stupid goal.

Comment author: Caspian 19 February 2012 04:04:22AM 2 points [-]

The legal situation here in Australia of e-cigarettes being more restricted than cigarettes pisses me off when I think about it.

Comment author: gwern 28 January 2013 09:45:58PM *  3 points [-]

I was collecting papers on the topic of dependency on nicotine-replacement therapy (patches, gums, inhalers) the other day, and I was fascinated to read in explanations of why so little non-smoker data was available that, prior to 1996, you needed a prescription to buy them in the USA.

'So', I thought, 'before 1996, if you were over 18-21, you could buy any tobacco product you wanted in unlimited amounts and guaranteed that you were cutting several years on average off your life expectancy; yet you could not buy any amount of nicotine patches which come with essentially no side-effects and absolutely zero effect on life expectancy. Oh America!'

Comment author: TheOtherDave 28 January 2013 09:56:48PM 3 points [-]

I'm now reminded of the brother of a friend of mine who has never smoked, but nevertheless has an annoying nicotine craving that stems from having tried out a nicotine patch in his teens.