Applied Rationality Practice

ksvanhorn

It's one thing to read about a subject, but one gains a deeper understanding by seeing it applied to real problems, and an even deeper understanding by applying it yourself. This applies in particular to the closely related subjects of rationality, cognitive biases, and decision theory. With this in mind, I'd like to propose that we create one or more discussion topics each devoted to discussing and analyzing one decision problem of one person, and see how all this theory we've been discussing can help. The person could be either a Less Wrong member or just an acquaintance of one of us.

I'll commit to actively participating myself. Does anyone want to put forth a problem to discuss?

Definition- I could be very creative/broad with it and say that I'd like to develop a personal philosophy that combines motivational techniques, qualities I value in people, what I value in my work, etc. But that would be too broad for this topic. (I am working on this btw, right now I'm working on mind mapping. I've got to do some debugging of my old irrational beliefs). I also think that reducing existential risk is a means to an ends. I want to be uploaded, but the only way that's going to happen is if I reduce existential risk (unless somehow there are limited computational resources and only a few people can be uploaded. Honestly, I don't know how accurate any predictions we make right now are going to be. I tend to favor the prediction that we'll be able to upload plenty of people).

What triggered the decision?- I'm graduating soon. I need to make a decision.

The question is really "How am I going to reduce existential risk and enjoy doing it". I personally think that I'll be happy no matter what decision I make. I used to be depressed, but I've gained some control over my mood. Also, as long as I'm working hard to reduce ExR, live up to my potential, and help others do so as well, I'll be pretty happy. It's just a matter of how to do that most effectively. I suppose you could add "helping others live up to their potential" as a separate goal or a sub-goal of reduce ExR.

Constraints- I don't know if college is necessary for me. I'm applying for a Thiel Fellowship. However, my parents will not fund me unless I'm going to college so unless I get the Fellowship scholarship, I'm going to be going to college. The question of what to do in college is harder. Obviously there's more to it than just grades. I want to network so that I can meet mentors, business people, friends, girls, etc. I also would like to write books. I'm currently planning on writing an ebook on education and autodidactism (tentative title: ignorance is piss). I used to be in a mindset of choosing one career and becoming good at it (like the 10K hours rule. I actually have a copy of K.A.Ericcson's "Cambridge Handbook on expertise and expert performance" that I got for Christmas). On the other hand, I think that a combination of computer science, math, and chemistry (with self-studied business and philosophy) would allow me to be highly generalized. I could do start-ups, consulting, programming, publishing. On the other hand, I'd rather be an expert at at least one thing rather than be a jack of all trades.

Essential elements- On a personal level I think that I'm going to take care of that regardless of what major/career I choose by reading up on meditation, stoicism, psychology, PUA, NVC, IFS, etc. The essential elements of a good career...hmm. I have been thinking about this. I don't want to have some idiot boss. I want a job that allows me to learn on the job (20 years experience, not 5 years experience 4X). I'd like a career that advances the pace at which progress is made (as that would have the largest net impact). So I was thinking about investigating nootropics, but since the funding structure of medicine is such that little research is devoted to human enhancement/augmentation. So, now I'm thinking something like education reform. Also, I think the idea behind debategraphs/knowledemapping would highly benefit the advancement of knowledge if it were widely adopted.

conditionals/hinging decisions- dealt with.

scope- the scope is fairly large. I don't really see how it could be larger. I'm trying to think about ExR and the future of humanity to reduce it. I'm thinking about what I want to do after college. Personally, I've been thinking lately about how my plans never last for more than a couple months. My plan so far has been to acquire goal stability by reading a lot so that I identify all the unknown unknowns of the problem. Now that I have done that (to some extent), the next step is to make a mind-map with all these considerations in mind. Also, I feel like once I get to college, my plans will change drastically. Perhaps they won't. That would be good.

fresh insights- I've talked to people sitting next to me on the plane. My extended family. and several LWers. Slowly and steadily, I'm gaining goal stability.

The main points I'm getting from the above, in terms of problem definition, are these:

Reducing existential risk is a means to an end. The problem is how to ensure that your existence continues for a very, very long time (so that you get to do lots of fun stuff and have lots of interesting experiences?) At least, I presume that is why you want to get uploaded. Existential risk is one obstacle to achieving this, but not the only one.
Your problem is how to make a significant contribution to reducing existential risk and enjoy doing it. This seems a bit at

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0Vaniver14y

What's the chain of causation, here? I'm somewhat skeptical of the value of goal stability for you right now. Human lives are long. My recommendations: Philosophy of Life: This is an important thing worth thinking about, but not too much or too frequently. You should write a draft now, with lots of question marks. Rewrite it from scratch annually, and compare. How are your experiences changing your perception of your values? Be suspicious of convergence before, say, age 25. Keep them private so you can be honest. College Major: It sounds like flexibility is important at this stage. I would recommend something like a compsci/physics or compsci/chem double major. It's easier to start with the hardest and move down than start with the middle and move up. Don't let college define your responsibilities. It's easy to see that you're getting As in all of your courses and think that you've done enough; set measurable goals for mentors, friends, girls, and give yourself grades on those.

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