Also note that if US strike were a real five-missile strike, the retaliation would still be possible. Even half of the USSR stockpile was enough to level all the major military bases and industrial cities. If USSR "retaliated" to something that was not a real first strike... Let's just say that Petrov chose the cheaper risk.
I'm looking for historical examples of "flinching away," so I can illustrate the concept to others and talk about motivated cognition and leaving a line of retreat and so on.
The ideal example would be one of motivated skepticism with grave consequences. Like, a military commander who shied away from believing certain reports because they implied something huge and scary was about to happen, and then the huge and scary thing happened and caused great damage. Something like that.
What examples can you think of?