CWG comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (2012) - Less Wrong

25 Post author: orthonormal 26 December 2011 10:57PM

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Comment author: witzvo 27 May 2012 12:17:50AM 4 points [-]

You can call me Witzvo. My determination of whether I'm a "rationalist" is waiting on data to be supplied by your responses. I found HPMOR hilarious and insightful (I was hooked from the first chapter which so beautifully juxtaposed a rationalist child with all-too-realistic adults), and lurked some for a while. I have one previous post which I doubt ever got read. To be critical, my general impression of the discussions here is that they are self-congratulatory, smarter than they are wise, and sometimes obsessed with philosophically meaningful but not terribly urgent debates. However, I do value the criteria by which karma is obtained. And I saw some evidence of responses being actually based on the merits of an argument presented, which is commendable. Also, Eliezer should be commended for sticking his neck out so far and so often.

I was born into a sect of Christianity that is heretical in various ways, but notably in that they believe that God is operating all for the (eventual) good of mankind, and that we will all be saved (e.g. no eternal Hell). I remain agnostic. Talk about non-falsifiability and Occam's razor all you like, but a Bayesian doesn't abandon the possibilities to which he assigns prior mass without evidence, and even then the posterior mass generally just drops towards 0, not all the way. Still, my life is basically secular; I don't think there's an important observable difference in how I live my life from how an atheist lives, and that's pretty much the end of the matter for me. Oh, perhaps I have times of weakness, but who doesn't?

I have formal training in statistics. I am very sympathetic to the Savage / de Finetti schools of subjective Bayesianism, but if I had to name my philosophy of science I'd call it Boxian, after George Box (c.f. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2982063; I highly recommend this paper AND the discussion. Sorry about the pay walls).

I find the Solomonoff/Kolmogorov/AIXI ideas fascinating and inspiring. I aspire to compute for example, (a computationally bounded approximation to) the normal forms of (a finite subsequence of) a countable sequence of de Bruijn lambda terms and go from there. I do not see any lurking existential crisis in doing so.

In fact, maybe I've missed something, but I have not yet identified an actionable issue regarding one of the much-discussed existential crises. I do not participate much in the political system of my country or even see how that would help particularly except and unless through actual rational discussion and other action.

I find far more profit in exploring ideas, such as say, Inventing on Principle (http://vimeo.com/36579366), or Incremental Learning in Inductive Programming (http://www.cogsys.wiai.uni-bamberg.de/aaip09/aaip09_submissions/incremental.pdf), either of which I would be happy to discuss.

I am also intellectually lonely.

That's probably more than enough. Go on and tell me something less wrong.

Comment author: CWG 29 May 2012 05:49:45AM *  1 point [-]

Carl Sagan described himself as agnostic, and it's a rational position to hold. As Sagan said:

"An atheist is someone who is certain that God does not exist, someone who has compelling evidence against the existence of God. I know of no such compelling evidence. Because God can be relegated to remote times and places and to ultimate causes, we would have to know a great deal more about the universe than we do now to be sure that no such God exists. To be certain of the existence of God and to be certain of the nonexistence of God seem to me to be the confident extremes in a subject so riddled with doubt and uncertainty as to inspire very little confidence indeed".

However, I personally attach zero likelihood to anything like the Christian, Muslim, Jewish or Hindu god or gods existing. Technically I might be an agnostic, but I think "atheist" represents my outlook and belief system better. Then again, "a-theism" is defined in terms of what it doesn't believe. I prefer to minimize talking about atheism, and talk about what I do believe in - science, rationality and a naturalistic worldview.

Comment author: [deleted] 29 May 2012 02:58:32PM *  5 points [-]

0 and 1 are not probabilities anyway, so refusing to call someone an atheist (or a theist) because they assign a non-zero (or ‘non-one’) probability to a god existing seems pointless to me, because then hardly anyone would count as atheist (or a theist). (It's also a fallacy of gray, because assigning 0.1% probability to a god existing is not the same as assigning 99.9% probability to that.)

Comment author: witzvo 30 May 2012 01:22:04AM *  0 points [-]

This kind of comment completely throws me off. I will have to read Eliezer's arguments more carefully to see the meaning of these things further, but "0 and 1 are not probabilities"? What?! Under what mathematical model for Bayesianism is this true? I read "it's more convenient to use odds when you're doing Bayesian updates" and some discussion of the logistic transformation, some reasonable comments about finite changes under updating, and that MAYBE we should try to formulate a probability theory without 0 and 1, (resp. -inf, inf) to the title's apparent claim: "0 and 1 are not probabilities". Talk about a confusing non-sequitur. Same thing with the fallacy of gray. What? Eliezier rejects P(not A)=1-P(A) too?? I haven't read that yet but whatever form of Bayesianism he ascribes too, it's not a standard one mathematically.

EDIT: nevermind about the gray. I misread it. gray is just ignoring the difference between different probabilities., This applies to the word "agnostic" (i.e. are you a high agnostic or a low agnostic) but, then, nobody forced me to declare my probability numerically. I was just introducing where I fit in the usual spectrum. P({ of possibilities in which there is a God} | life)>1/100. EDIT2: Thanks for the "gray" post. I liked this best: "If you say, "No one is perfect, but some people are less imperfect than others," you may not gain applause; but for those who strive to do better, you have held out hope. No one is perfectly imperfect, after all." EDIT3: deleted a nonsense remark.