I'm looking at that distinction and un-making it. I don't see how you can choose not to average utility within an outcome, yet choose to average utility over possible future states.
Oh, okay then. The version of the post that I read seemed to be more failing to notice it rather than trying to explicitly deal with it head on. Anyways, I'd still say there's a distinction that makes it not quite obvious that one implies the other.
Anyways, the whole maximize expected utility over future states (rather than future selves, I guess) comes straight out of the various theorems used to derive decision theory. Via the vulnerability arguments, etc, it's basically a "how not to be stupid, no matter what your values are" thing.
The average...
I said this in a comment on Real-life entropic weirdness, but it's getting off-topic there, so I'm posting it here.
My original writeup was confusing, because I used some non-standard terminology, and because I wasn't familiar with the crucial theorem. We cleared up the terminological confusion (thanks esp. to conchis and Vladimir Nesov), but the question remains. I rewrote the title yet again, and have here a restatement that I hope is clearer.
Some problems with average utilitarianism from the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy:
(If you assign different weights to the utilities of different people, we could probably get the same result by considering a person with weight W to be equivalent to W copies of a person with weight 1.)