Okay, this explanation works!

Without access to the math, we estimate probability into wide bands ("always", "usually", "sometimes", "never") and evolutionarily favor the "always" band because it is a lot less likely to have us wind up starving, and how could we save the excess from a jackpot win anyway on the savannah? When we then learn math, we learn that 99%, which before math we would count as "always" in our intuitive system, isn't actually always, and now our half-educated intuitive system treats it as a "usually". What we then need to do is ignore the intuitive system in favor of the mathematical learning of payoffs.

Okay, I'm happy with that.