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lessdazed comments on So You Want to Save the World - Less Wrong
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I'd love to be a gatekeeper too, if you or anyone else is up for it. I'm similarly limited financially, but maybe a very small amount of money or a bunch of karma (not that I have all that much). I would be willing to bet 10 karma for an AI victory for every 1 karma for a gatekeeper victory (me being the gatekeeper) or even quite a bit higher if necessary.
What I want to know is whether you are one of those who thinks no superintelligence could talk them out in two hours, or just no human. If not with a probability of literally zero (or perhaps one for the ability of a superintelligence to talk its way out), approximately what.
Regardless, let's do this some time this month. As far as betting is concerned, something similar to the original seems reasonable to me.
A superintelligence almost surely could, but I don't think a human could, not if I really didn't want to let them out. For a human, maybe .02? I can't really quantify my feeling, but in words it's something like "Yeah right. How could anyone possibly do this?".
I'd be interested in gatekeeping, as well, as long as it takes place late in the evening or on a weekend.