TheOtherDave comments on So You Want to Save the World - Less Wrong

41 Post author: lukeprog 01 January 2012 07:39AM

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Comment author: lukeprog 27 December 2011 09:44:04PM *  4 points [-]

Stuart Armstrong's explanation of the 5-and-10 problem is:

The five-and-ten problem (sometimes known as the heavy ghost problem) is a problem in certain types of [updateless decision theory]-like decision theories, when the fact that a counterfactual is known to be false makes the algorithm implement it.

Specifically, let there be a decision problem which involves the choice between $5 and $10, a utility function that values the $10 more than the $5, and an algorithm A that reasons something like:

"Look at all proposition of the type '(A decides to do X) implies (Utility=y)', and find the X that maximises y, then do X."

When faced with the above problem, certain types of algorithm can reason:

"The utility of $10 is greater than the utility of $5. Therefore I will never decide to choose $5. Therefor (A decides to do 'choose $5') is a false statement. Since a false statement implies anything, (A decides to do 'choose $5') implies (Utility=y) for any, arbitrarily high, value of y. Therefore this is the utility maximising decision, and I should choose $5."

That is the informal, natural language statement of the problem. Whether the algorithm is actually vulnerable to the 5-and-10 problem depends on the details of what the algorithm is allowed to deduce about itself.

However, some think Drescher's explanation is more accurate. Somebody should write a short paper on the problem so I can cite that instead. :)

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 28 December 2011 07:40:43AM *  20 points [-]

This is an incorrect description of 5-and-10. The description given is of a different problem (one of whose aspects is addressed in the recent cousin_it's writeup, the problem is resolved in that setting by Lemma 2).

5-and-10 problem is concerned with the following (incorrect) line of reasoning by a hypothetical agent:

"I have to decide between $5 and $10. Suppose I decide to choose $5. I know that I'm a money-optimizer, so if I do this, $5 must be more money than $10, so this alternative is better. Therefore, I should choose $5."

Comment author: linkhyrule5 26 July 2013 07:24:43AM 0 points [-]

This is probably a stupid question, but is this reducible to the Lobian obstacle? On the surface, it seems similar.