Craig_Heldreth comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 31 December 2011 06:50:43PM 2 points [-]

Obama will win in November 2012.

P=~.9 (that is ninety percent!)

Comment author: gwern 31 December 2011 07:29:34PM * 20 points [-]

90%? I think you need to read some Nate Silver. (Also, existing prediction.)

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 01 January 2012 05:34:19PM 11 points [-]

Thank you for the link to Silver's piece. I followed 538 in 2008 but I had not looked at it in awhile. Obviously .9 is far too high.

Comment author: michaelcurzi 02 January 2012 12:46:15AM 7 points [-]

Upvoted for updating.

Comment author: taw 03 January 2012 04:52:10AM 4 points [-]

Intrade gives him barely above 50% chance, so you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.

Comment author: APMason 03 January 2012 04:57:21AM 6 points [-]

you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.

And it's correct.

Comment author: wedrifid 31 December 2011 08:23:57PM 1 point [-]

I want to make a bet at those odds. Mostly based on gwern's reply.