gwern comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: gwern 31 December 2011 07:29:34PM * 20 points [-]

90%? I think you need to read some Nate Silver. (Also, existing prediction.)

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 01 January 2012 05:34:19PM 11 points [-]

Thank you for the link to Silver's piece. I followed 538 in 2008 but I had not looked at it in awhile. Obviously .9 is far too high.

Comment author: michaelcurzi 02 January 2012 12:46:15AM 7 points [-]

Upvoted for updating.