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muflax comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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Some 2012-specific stuff. It's all a bit fluff-y, but unfortunately in all the high-status areas I either won't do better than the base rate or have just made it past Mount Stupid and really don't feel like making predictions just yet. I'm hoping for others to post way-too-confident comments I can make cynical predictions about. Anyway:
I still predict that Luke won't finish his metaethics sequence in 2012, especially now that the scope has widened.
The fifth book of the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series actually came out (contrary to expectations) and GRRM is still alive, so I'm reasonably confident he won't die in 2012 either. I'm a little less sure if the TV show will actually cover all the books, but still somewhat optimistic.
Half-Life 3 won't come out. Not sure what will happen to EP3, but seems more likely than not it won't get released either. Still thinking.
Reddit: I'm less confident now we'll get an epic "told you so!" conclusion to the birth certificate threads after the whole birdie/cheese disaster. My trust in Reddit's ability to deliver in 2012 is way down.
And of course: the world doesn't end on 12/21, probably, but I'm still giving it a 1% shot. I'm not sure if my sanity's slipping again, but "we are in a supervised simulation" still seems not too implausible (say, 0.01% <= p <= 20%).
I'm also practicing my "that was a totally lame twist and I called it ages ago" skills. (Obviously spoilers behind links, but not in this comment.)
I've done fairly well with Dexter's 6th season (three notable predictions) and have added some about season 7, but as I intentionally only follow the series itself, most serious predictions will have to wait for the first episode (except for the important one).
(Unfortunately I don't watch any "lame twist" shows besides Dexter right now, but I'm checking if I missed some.)
What are the odds of this being judged wrong?
So given that we're in a supervised simulation, the world ends on December 21st with p>1/20 ?
Yes. It's a sufficiently weird feature of the kind of simulation I would join. An apocalypse seems fitting, and 12/21 is the most prominent date we had since Y2K, but it's more surreal and a nice numerological coincidence, so more likely. (See Theory of Narrative Causation.)
I'll state here, for the record, that at some point in the future (post-singularity?) I intent to implement Sburb, grab some friends, suppress their memories (and mine) and make a proper game of it. I made this decision back in 2011, when I first ran into Homestuck.
It is in the nature of my personality that I would probably be unable to resist using 2012 for the start date, not least since I have a bunch of nieces and nephews at the appropriate age to be players right now. :P
I have no idea how to assign a probability to this currently being the case, though. ^^;
"I'm also practicing my "that was a totally lame twist and I called it ages ago" skills. (Obviously spoilers behind links, but not in this comment.)"
be careful with this one, people won't watch anything with me.