wedrifid comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 31 December 2011 06:50:43PM 2 points [-]

Obama will win in November 2012.

P=~.9 (that is ninety percent!)

Comment author: wedrifid 31 December 2011 08:23:57PM 1 point [-]

I want to make a bet at those odds. Mostly based on gwern's reply.