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PhilGoetz comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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The U.S. Presidential candidate who spends the most money on his campaign will be elected.
Why is this downvoted? Too obvious?
Hard to judge, thanks to the Citizens case, and I can't help but wonder if it's near tautology - the more popular candidate wins, and also raises the most.
It's not a tautology because they are not logically equivalent (heh), but a spurious correlation, yes.
I was going to assign this prediction 50%, then I remembered the effect gwern mentioned here.