Some 2012-specific stuff. It's all a bit fluff-y, but unfortunately in all the high-status areas I either won't do better than the base rate or have just made it past Mount Stupid and really don't feel like making predictions just yet. I'm hoping for others to post way-too-confident comments I can make cynical predictions about. Anyway:

• I still predict that Luke won't finish his metaethics sequence in 2012, especially now that the scope has widened.

• The fifth book of the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series actually came out (contrary to expectations) and GRRM is still alive, so I'm reasonably confident he won't die in 2012 either. I'm a little less sure if the TV show will actually cover all the books, but still somewhat optimistic.

• Half-Life 3 won't come out. Not sure what will happen to EP3, but seems more likely than not it won't get released either. Still thinking.

• Reddit: I'm less confident now we'll get an epic "told you so!" conclusion to the birth certificate threads after the whole birdie/cheese disaster. My trust in Reddit's ability to deliver in 2012 is way down.

• And of course: the world doesn't end on 12/21, probably, but I'm still giving it a 1% shot. I'm not sure if my sanity's slipping again, but "we are in a supervised simulation" still seems not too implausible (say, 0.01% <= p <= 20%).

I'm also practicing my "that was a totally lame twist and I called it ages ago" skills. (Obviously spoilers behind links, but not in this comment.)

I've done fairly well with Dexter's 6th season (three notable predictions) and have added some about season 7, but as I intentionally only follow the series itself, most serious predictions will have to wait for the first episode (except for the important one).

(Unfortunately I don't watch any "lame twist" shows besides Dexter right now, but I'm checking if I missed some.)