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AspiringKnitter comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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Comments (339)
Do you need to have an actual probability? Do you have to bet anything to post predictions? Do you have to be on PredictionBook.com?
Because this seems cool, but I'm not sure...?
Dunno if there are particular rules for this thread, but in general we encourage predictions to have confidence intervals associated with them. No bets needed, PredictionBook.com account not required.
You can predict however you like. Predictions with numbers are preferred, but not required. There's a fairly good chance that gwern will make a PredictionBook post out of one of your numeric predictions.