So... how did I do for my 2011 predictions?
The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%
"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%
Apparently incorrect. It wasn't much higher, but it was still higher.
The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%
Wrong. To my surprise, the book did indeed come out.
A superintelligent AGI will be created: Less than 1 in 1 million
As expected, no AGI.
The Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world: Less than 1 in 1 million
As expected, the world is still here.
My 96-year-old grandmother survives another year: 67%
Wrong again here; she died in January.
The Riemann hypothesis is proven: 1 in 5000
As expected, no proof.
I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%
As expected, no qualification.
I get a "real job": 1%
As expected, no job.
Going through expiring predictions reminded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give hostages to fortune in making predictions for events in 2012 and beyond.
Suggested topics include: Methods of Rationality updates (eg. "will there be any?"), economic benchmarks (price of gold has been an educational one for me this past year), medical advances (but be careful not to be too optimistic!), personal precommitments (signing up for cryonics?), being curmudgeonly about self-improvement, making daring predictions about the future of AGI, and so on.
As before, please be fairly specific. I intend to put most predictions on PredictionBook.com and it'd be nice if they weren't too hard to judge in the future.
(If you want advice on making good predictions, I've tried to write up a few useful heuristics I've learned. So far in the judging process, I've done pretty well this year, although I'm a little annoyed I got a Yemen prediction right but for the wrong reasons.)