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MileyCyrus comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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Ron Paul runs as an Independent or third party. 20% Obama reelected. 60% IF Obama reelected, white male goes on a shooting spree citing political climate as motivation. (Ignore this prediction if Obama not reelected.) 10% The men's rights movement is mentioned in a Time or Newsweek article. 5% Dark Knight Rises gets 50-85% on Rotten Tomatoes. (Good, but not as good as Dark Knight) 60% New Michael Jackson song released posthumously. 20% Chris Brown arrested on new domestic violence charges. 20%
If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn.
The mens’ rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012.
Dark Knight Rises will be released in 2012 and will obtain Rotten Tomotoes score of at equal to or greater than 50% and equal or less than 85%.
A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013.
Chris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013.
Any complaints with my interpretation of your prediction statements?
Looks great, thanks for figuring out the formatting.
The ones I didn't add were already on PredictionBook or had a close substitute that was.
ISTM that a shooter mentioning the political climate is significantly more likely than the shooter "mentioning the 'political climate' ". I think that quote marks mean exact quotes there.