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_ozymandias comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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Comments (339)
Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee: 80%.
Obama will win reelection: 90%.with a non-Romney presidential nominee, 50% against Romney
The Occupy Wall Street protests will fade away over the next year so much that I no longer hear much about them, even in my little liberal hippie news bubble: 75%
There will be massive fanboy backlash against The Hobbit: 80%. Despite this, the Hobbit will be a pretty good movie (above 75% on Rotten Tomatoes): 70%
John Carter will be a pretty good movie (above 75% on Rotten Tomatoes). 85% Whether or not it is a good movie, I will love it. 95%
I will get my first death or rape threat this year: 80% My reaction to the death or rape threat will be elation that I've finally made it in feminist blogging: 95% Even if it isn't I will totally say it is in order to seem cooler: 99%
My comod and I will complete the NSWATM spinoff book this year: 75% It will be published as an ebook: 80% It will not make the transition to dead-tree-book this year: 90% It will make the transition to dead-tree-book eventually: 60%
I will break up with my girlfriend at some point over the next year: 60%.
I will acquire a new partner at some point over the next year: 90%.
You haven't gotten one yet?
I once had a totally non-political blog with less than 1000 views per month, and I still got a few.
No death or rape threats. I have yet to come up with a theory about why (beyond "crazy random happenstance" and "I'm so nice no one wants to rape and murder me"); suggestions appreciated.
I feel tempted to send you some extremely silly and colorful threats just so you can check off that milestone. ("I will pay Pinky from Pinky and the Brain to invent a time-travel machine to genetically modify your great-great-grandparents so that you end up with a lethal allergy to Cornish pasties, and then I will mail you a Cornish pasty!")
The sort of people who make rape threats on feminist websites wouldn't rape or don't believe it is possible to rape someone with a masculine sounding screen-name.
But what about the death threats? (It's still probably the screename, though.)
...or don't find it emotionally satisfying to threaten to rape them.
I sincerely hope your girlfriend does not read this site, or at least doesn't know your username.
Well, you see, that 60% already factors in that possibility.
My girlfriend knows and is highly amused at my pessimism.
My logic is that I have never actually had a relationship that went much beyond the six-month mark, and while there are all kinds of factors that mean that this one is different and will stand the test of time, all of my other relationships also had all kinds of factors that meant this one is different and will stand the test of time.
The prediction is only 60%, however, since I might have actually gotten better at relationships since the last go-round. And because my girlfriend is really fucking awesome. :)
Can you get her prediction? Then possibly revise the prediction in light of new information from an informed party.
You may be interested in this http://lesswrong.com/lw/jx/we_change_our_minds_less_often_than_we_think .
I don't believe that that quite applies to my situation. I'm not predicting whether I'll choose right now to break up with my girlfriend (99.999% certainty I won't); I'm predicting whether at some point in the next year one of the future Ozymandiases, subtly different from me, will find zirself in a state in which zie wants to break up with zir girlfriend. I have already made up my mind to not break up; I'm predicting how likely I am to change my mind.
Are you not certain of your future self's gender, or are you using Dr Dan Streetmentioner's grammar for time travelers?
While this is amusing, Ozy's pronoun is already "zie". You may want to look up "gender binary".
Are you assuming that ozy's girlfriend is unaware of this prediction? If so, why?
My opinion is that a lot of the OWS folks are conferring and planning during the winter, and will continue to protest but will be doing something other than occupying public or semi-public spaces. I don't know how to frame this as a testable prediction.
When you make a series of predictions A, B, and C, are the probabilities you give for B and C conditional on A coming out in such a way that B and C make sense?
Intrade says:
So in these you are in agreement with everybody else.
I predict you're wrong on Hobbit backlash, but I don't even see how to define "backlash". Are we talking Matrix 2 backlash or Episode 1 backlash?
I was thinking roughly Matrix 2 level backlash: a significant group of "ruined FOREVER" fans, but the movie does not become a byword for terribleness now and forever like Episode 1. Possibly this could be measured by the number of negative YMMV tropes on its TVTropes page?
Fan backlash is remarkably difficult to operationalize.
Don't think that'd work; TV Tropes isn't very representative of fandom as a whole, and in any case popular works will attract more negative tropes than obscure ones simply as a function of having more eyes on the page and more fingers on keyboards. On the other hand, if the page gets locked for bickering, that's probably a good (if binary) indicator of backlash.
If you asked me to come up with a more general metric of fannish approval, I might look at ratios of fanworks to mainstream sales; that's pretty hard in itself, though, since different fandoms congregate in different places. You'll find a lot more Naruto fanart on DeviantArt than Sherlock Holmes.
You sure Matrix 2 isn't "a byword for terribleness now and forever like Episode 1"? I wasn't really around for either of them, but the reaction people have seems about the same for both.
EDIT: Although I may be confusing backlash against the Matrix sequels for backlash against "Matrix 2". Was that lower?
So, with a 60% chance of girlfriend breakup and a 90% chance of new partner acquisition, does this mean a 36% chance of a polyamorous, open, "cheating" or otherwise non-monogamous relationship situation for you at some point over the next year?
Edited to add: actually somewhat higher than 36%, since multiple new partners are possible along with a girlfriend breakup.
I'm already polyamorous, so there is in fact a certainty of a polyamorous relationship situation at some point in 2012. :)
Ah, I should have taken that possibility into account. Thank you.
Not too far off my own estimate, but... = 42% chance of a Republican president in 2013.
...seems overconfident. Counterprediction: OWS comes roaring back in some form|GOP presidency : 85%
Assuming only, say 20% chance of OWS maintaining itself in some form under a Democrat, that still gives (0.85x0.42 + 0.2x0.58) = 0.515 of continued OWS activity. Rounding down to correct for the likelihood of overconfidence at some intermediate step, I'll say Chance of OWS fading away: 50%
It is true, I forgot to account for the effects of a GOP presidency on OWS. However, I still think there's a high chance of a OWS fadeaway for a few reasons. One, the liberal hippies (generally the backbone of social justice movements) have started to nitpick OWS in earnest: this could be a sign either that OWS is getting more successful (and the crab in a bucket mentality is taking over) or that it's losing their support, but given that the mainstream media seems to have decided OWS is yesterday's news, I think it might be the latter. Second, as the economy splutters into recovery, OWS will get less support. Third, if OWS continues to get more popular, the government will likely make some token effort to address their concerns that will take away some of the momentum of the movement.
Nevertheless, you did mention an important factor I overlooked, so I'll downgrade it to a roughly 60% probability.