Emile comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (339)
Tags: predictions

Comments (339)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Emile 02 January 2012 01:06:24AM 9 points [-]

There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs. The US will send aid but will not directly engage Israel's enemies. Japan will join in on Israel's side after the radicals sink oil tankers on the way to Japan. The Russians will sit this one out. Turkey may or may not take part, but if they do it will be against Israel.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

(Also, it'd be nice if you attached probabilities to your predictions, that's much more useful than adding details)

Comment author: FiftyTwo 03 January 2012 05:11:38PM -1 points [-]

I agree probabilities would be helpful.

As for that last prediction, the individual components seem plausible enough. (Say 50%). With the exception of "China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side." which would be entirely against their interest and the opposite to their past policy. Also of there is a major war it will be unlikely to have a 'radical muslim side' as it will be between states and thats not a meaningful term to apply to any grouping of middle eastern states.

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit