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Prismattic comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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This prediction could be made less ambiguous by specifying whether you mean that North Korea never successfully built a nuclear weapon but was sincerely trying to do so or you mean that they were never seriously attempting to build one in the first place.
Given you are not necessarily dealing with hugely rational individuals 'sincerely trying to' is hard to prove. If I give someone $1 to buy me a car am I sincerely trying to obtain one?
I meant either of those scenarios.