gwern comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (339)

Sort By: Best

Show:

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: gwern 02 January 2012 02:35:50AM 10 points [-]

Made 3 predictions for this: the nominee; Tea Party Split; all 3 clauses
Agree on 50-50, rest too vague
Already a bunch of predictions
Too ideological to judge later (not that one expects much from a J Galt)
Seems somewhat objective, but I don't care enough to want to dig through real estate statistics to try to divine the right numbers
Seems pretty reasonable. Nobody would try to pass it if they thought it'd be struck down immediately; I excluded your repeal bill claims, though, sticking to just the Supreme Court decision.
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5070 Conjunction and narrative fallacies much?