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TheOtherDave comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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Okay, this seems like nothing could possibly go wrong just from my making some educated guesses, right?
90%: the probabilities in this post are poorly calibrated, but things I think are likely will probably happen, and the converse is also true.
10%: I'll learn to play Magic: the Gathering by 2013.
.1%: Singularity occurs before January 1, 2013.
80%: Occupy protests do not end before May.
90%: Judge Rotenberg Center continues torturing children at least through December 31, 2012.
99% There will be at least one update to Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality this year.
99% The Winds of Winter will not be released this year.
85% George R. R. Martin will not die this year.
Well, there are potential self-fulfilling prophecy effects, but I suspect the only one for which they're worth even mentioning is #2, and it's not clear that such an effect would constitute "going wrong".