Going through expiring predictions reminded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give hostages to fortune in making predictions for events in 2012 and beyond.
Suggested topics include: Methods of Rationality updates (eg. "will there be any?"), economic benchmarks (price of gold has been an educational one for me this past year), medical advances (but be careful not to be too optimistic!), personal precommitments (signing up for cryonics?), being curmudgeonly about self-improvement, making daring predictions about the future of AGI, and so on.
As before, please be fairly specific. I intend to put most predictions on PredictionBook.com and it'd be nice if they weren't too hard to judge in the future.
(If you want advice on making good predictions, I've tried to write up a few useful heuristics I've learned. So far in the judging process, I've done pretty well this year, although I'm a little annoyed I got a Yemen prediction right but for the wrong reasons.)
Ok, let's join the party! Personal:
I will manage to rent my grandparent's house before the end of the year 40% I will manage to sell my grandparent's house before the end of the year 15% (Neither of the two happens 45%)
My girlfriend will come to live with me in my flat before the end of the year: 60%
I will manage to stabilize my weight between 70 and 73 kilos: 50%
I will buy more than 50 musical records on physical support (cd / vinyl) 70%
I will finally do a complete inventory of my music collection 30%
In case the previous happens, I will turn out to own more than 1000 albums 80%
I will end up fighting with my very fervent and freshly converted friend because of a joke about religion I made 20%
Sport
Roger Federer will win at least one grand slam tournament or the olympic gold medal 70%
No Italian football team will reach the semifinals of the Europa League or the Champions League 75%
Italy will win between 8 and 12 gold medal at the summer olympics games 80%
(Italian) politics, economy and society
There will be an election round in 2012 80%
Neither of the two biggest parties will get more than 30% of the preferences if the previous happens 70%
Italy won't default 95%
Price of gas will reach a peak greater than 2.00 € / liter 40%
The Catholic Church will still be exempted from the payment of the IMU (tax on the property of buildings) 95%
Miscellaneous
ATLAS and CMS will announce the discovery of the Higgs Boson 95%
No other new particles will be discovered (5 sigma significance) in 2012 60%
HPMOR won't be finished before the end of the year 60%
The mean temperature in Europe during July will be higher than the corresponding one in 2011 75%
About your grandparent's house: i seems to me like once you specify the probability of renting and selling at 40% and 15%, you have already decided that the probability of neither happening would be 1-(1-.4)(1-.15)=49%. This appears inconsistent with the 45% prediction, or am I missing something?