Cthulhoo comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: Cthulhoo 02 January 2012 03:48:16PM 3 points [-]

Ok, let's join the party! Personal:

I will manage to rent my grandparent's house before the end of the year 40% I will manage to sell my grandparent's house before the end of the year 15% (Neither of the two happens 45%)

My girlfriend will come to live with me in my flat before the end of the year: 60%

I will manage to stabilize my weight between 70 and 73 kilos: 50%

I will buy more than 50 musical records on physical support (cd / vinyl) 70%

I will finally do a complete inventory of my music collection 30%

In case the previous happens, I will turn out to own more than 1000 albums 80%

I will end up fighting with my very fervent and freshly converted friend because of a joke about religion I made 20%

Sport

Roger Federer will win at least one grand slam tournament or the olympic gold medal 70%

No Italian football team will reach the semifinals of the Europa League or the Champions League 75%

Italy will win between 8 and 12 gold medal at the summer olympics games 80%

(Italian) politics, economy and society

There will be an election round in 2012 80%

Neither of the two biggest parties will get more than 30% of the preferences if the previous happens 70%

Italy won't default 95%

Price of gas will reach a peak greater than 2.00 € / liter 40%

The Catholic Church will still be exempted from the payment of the IMU (tax on the property of buildings) 95%

Miscellaneous

ATLAS and CMS will announce the discovery of the Higgs Boson 95%

No other new particles will be discovered (5 sigma significance) in 2012 60%

HPMOR won't be finished before the end of the year 60%

The mean temperature in Europe during July will be higher than the corresponding one in 2011 75%

Comment author: AnthonyC 08 January 2012 05:47:18PM 0 points [-]

About your grandparent's house: i seems to me like once you specify the probability of renting and selling at 40% and 15%, you have already decided that the probability of neither happening would be 1-(1-.4)(1-.15)=49%. This appears inconsistent with the 45% prediction, or am I missing something?

Comment author: [deleted] 08 January 2012 06:47:33PM 1 point [-]

He's assuming he won't rent it and then sell it, so the three possibilities (renting, selling, and neither) are mutually exclusive, and they do sum up to 100% as they should.