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Will_Newsome comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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Comments (339)
This is tough to score objectively because not all the predictions in this thread assign a numerical probability to the prediction statement.
Also, because of that whole P(¬X) = 1 - P(X) thing, any deviation from perfect calibration (whether under or overconfidence) is necessarily overconfidence (if not of that particular proposition, then the negation of that proposition).
Hahahaha, nice word choice.
Is that supposed to be a joke? I don't get it.
Wracking my brains over some humorous interpretation, all I can get is maybe 'P(X)' is supposed to sound like 'penis'?
I'm guessing its because usually when people using the phrase "that whole x thing", x is a very simple term (usually one word), not an equation or one of the axioms of probability. Think, "that whole job thing" or "that whole guy thing".
Which explains why I didn't find it funny: I've used “whole [half a dozen words] thing” myself.