taw comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: _ozymandias 01 January 2012 06:38:19PM *  9 points [-]

Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee: 80%.

Obama will win reelection: 90%.with a non-Romney presidential nominee, 50% against Romney

The Occupy Wall Street protests will fade away over the next year so much that I no longer hear much about them, even in my little liberal hippie news bubble: 75%

There will be massive fanboy backlash against The Hobbit: 80%. Despite this, the Hobbit will be a pretty good movie (above 75% on Rotten Tomatoes): 70%

John Carter will be a pretty good movie (above 75% on Rotten Tomatoes). 85% Whether or not it is a good movie, I will love it. 95%

I will get my first death or rape threat this year: 80% My reaction to the death or rape threat will be elation that I've finally made it in feminist blogging: 95% Even if it isn't I will totally say it is in order to seem cooler: 99%

My comod and I will complete the NSWATM spinoff book this year: 75% It will be published as an ebook: 80% It will not make the transition to dead-tree-book this year: 90% It will make the transition to dead-tree-book eventually: 60%

I will break up with my girlfriend at some point over the next year: 60%.

I will acquire a new partner at some point over the next year: 90%.

Comment author: taw 03 January 2012 04:38:06AM 0 points [-]

Intrade says:

  • Romney 78.8% chance of 2012 Republican nomination.
  • Romney 38.5% chance of 2012 presidency. (and 38.5 / 78.8 = 48.8% for what it's worth)
  • Obama 51.4% chance of 2012 presidency.

So in these you are in agreement with everybody else.

I predict you're wrong on Hobbit backlash, but I don't even see how to define "backlash". Are we talking Matrix 2 backlash or Episode 1 backlash?

Comment author: _ozymandias 03 January 2012 06:01:22AM 0 points [-]

I was thinking roughly Matrix 2 level backlash: a significant group of "ruined FOREVER" fans, but the movie does not become a byword for terribleness now and forever like Episode 1. Possibly this could be measured by the number of negative YMMV tropes on its TVTropes page?

Fan backlash is remarkably difficult to operationalize.

Comment author: Nornagest 03 January 2012 06:51:25AM *  2 points [-]

Don't think that'd work; TV Tropes isn't very representative of fandom as a whole, and in any case popular works will attract more negative tropes than obscure ones simply as a function of having more eyes on the page and more fingers on keyboards. On the other hand, if the page gets locked for bickering, that's probably a good (if binary) indicator of backlash.

If you asked me to come up with a more general metric of fannish approval, I might look at ratios of fanworks to mainstream sales; that's pretty hard in itself, though, since different fandoms congregate in different places. You'll find a lot more Naruto fanart on DeviantArt than Sherlock Holmes.

Comment author: MugaSofer 15 December 2012 07:44:34PM *  0 points [-]

You sure Matrix 2 isn't "a byword for terribleness now and forever like Episode 1"? I wasn't really around for either of them, but the reaction people have seems about the same for both.

EDIT: Although I may be confusing backlash against the Matrix sequels for backlash against "Matrix 2". Was that lower?

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